Global Warming Not to Blame for Hurricanes, Says Top Forecaster

8 de abril de 2007

<body><div id="article"><tr><td height="28" valign="middle" width="184"></td><td valign="middle" width="185"></td></tr><h1>Global Warming Not to Blame for Hurricanes, Says Top Forecaster</h1><p>April 9, 22:00 (EIRNS)—"I think the whole human-induced greenhouse thing is a red herring," senior forecaster Dr. William Gray told the last session of the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans April 6, according to a report by Reuters news service.</p><p>Dr. Gray, professor emeritus of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, has been producing theof Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity for 22 years. Gray believes that natural changes in the ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns, not man-made global warming, are the key driver of Atlantic hurricanes.</p><p>The April 3 forecast by Gray and his colleague Dr. Philip Klotzbach, indicates that the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. They estimate that 2007 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 40 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 11 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). "The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140 percent of the long-period average," according to their Extended Range Forecast.</p><p>"This early April forecast is based on a newly devised extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 40 years of past global reanalysis data and is then tested on an additional 15 years of global reanalysis data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We have increased our forecast from our early December prediction due largely to the rapid dissipation of El Niño which has occurred over the past couple of months," write Drs. Gray and Klotzbach.</p></div></body>